MN4460 Risk Management for Defense

This course develops students’ ability to assess and manage risk in operational management and planning. In contrast to familiar matrix-based operational risk management processes, this course uses quantitative modeling to assess risk, and addresses how to choose an appropriate analysis methodology for a given managerial decision context.

Students will learn to build and interpret simulation-based models to quantify uncertainty and evaluate risk tradeoffs. They will also learn to identify risk mitigations appropriate to a new scenario, develop riskreducing alternatives, and choose or recommend an alternative with acceptable risk. The course emphasizes interpreting results to support resource allocation decisions, avoiding common pitfalls in risk management, and communication in defense risk management.

Lecture Hours

4

Lab Hours

0

Course Learning Outcomes

1. Structure a risk analysis in a relevant scenario, identifying key sources of uncertainty, consequences of concern, and relevant alternatives and mitigations.
2. Use Monte Carlo simulation models to assess risk using risk curves and scalar measures (e.g., probability of exceedance), and assess the effect of assumptions through sensitivity analysis.
3. Identify appropriate risk mitigations, develop risk-reducing alternatives, compare alternatives in terms of their risk profile, and make risk-informed managerial decisions balancing risk with available resources.
4. Recognize when human factors that can affect risk analysis, and how to avoid common pitfalls.
5. Effectively communicate their risk analyses to enable improved risk management decisions in defense managerial contexts.